DBQ: Uncertainty in temperature rise projections

Here are the answers to the DBQ: Uncertainty in temperature rise projections (p. 190)

1. AIFI

2. Minimum 1.1 deg. C, maximum 5.9 deg. C

3. 1.8 deg. C

4. 2.1 deg C in the Arctic versus 1.8 deg C for the global average.  The Arctic temperature rise is higher than the global average.

5. In addition to greenhouse gasses, it is possible that positive feedback cycles will exacerbate the problem; such as melting of polar ice caps; the permafrost melting or increase in cloud cover.

6. You should have made reference to the following things: Depends on whether data used by centers is the same or independently gathered; more centers means more validity in the data; the importance of a larger sample size.

7. Your answer should have made reference to the following points:
* According to the precautionary principle strong action is called for because the consequences of inaction are potentially catastrophic.
* The costs of mitigating the problem should be borne equally among all countries.
* Developing nations need access to carbon production to achieve a higher standard of living.
* Actions taken will require greater reductions of carbon consumption in the developed world.

8. Your answer should have made reference to the following points:
* Forces acting in support of avoiding economic risks are generally more powerful than protecting the environment.
* Some shifts in economic activity are possible.
* Examining the effects of shifts in local vs. global economies.
* A shift to a greater degree of subsistence activities.
* Fossil fuel shortage may aid shift.